Following a decade-long surge, Sub-Saharan Africa’s public debt ratio reached a historic high of almost 60 percent of GDP in 2022,
pushing over half of the region’s low-income countries into debt distress or high-risk territory. This paper investigates the extent to
which fiscal prudence—defined as the disciplined pursuit of country-specific debt anchors and medium-term fiscal strategies—can
safeguard growth sustainability in the region. Using a panel of 43 Sub-Saharan African economies from 2010-2023 and a novel
debt–growth threshold model, we find that fiscal rules anchored around a 55 percent-of-GDP debt ceiling (the IMF-estimated median
anchor) are associated with a 1.1 percentage-point higher long-run growth rate, provided primary balances adjust by 2–3 percent of
GDP. However, the composition of debt matters: shifts toward costlier commercial and external private creditors—whose share rose
from 14 percent in 2010 to 25 percent in 2023—have eroded fiscal space and amplified rollover risks. Case-study evidence from
Benin and Burkina Faso illustrates how policy-based guarantees and full debt disclosure, respectively, can lengthen maturities and
lower servicing costs, whereas countries that deviated from their anchors experienced growth reversals amid rising interest-to-
revenue ratios. We conclude that, without a credible medium-term anchor and greater debt transparency, Sub-Saharan Africa faces
a trade-off between stabilising debt and sustaining the growth momentum required to meet the SDGs. The paper offers policy
recommendations for aligning fiscal prudence with developmental objectives under tightening global financial conditions.