Harnessing resources outside of the aid architecture for development

Abstract

This paper challenges a long-held development-policy assumption that aid flow in world’s poorer countries is caused by lack of domestic
resources. Using comparative data for five African countries—Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda—the paper examines the
relationship between growth in public debt and tax revenue. It exploits the timing of political events in a within-country setting to identify the
changes in government spending, public debt and tax revenue associated with (discrete changes in) political event. The results based on the
first-differences estimation method show a negative relationship between growth of public debt and tax to GDP ratio. Moreover the positive
association between growth in government spending/debt and political events suggests that domestic politics and resource mobilisation are
somehow entangled. Preference for aid is to a large extent influenced by politically driven interests, but also as the principal factors shaping
policy attitudes toward domestic resources, corruption and tax evasion. Conversely, while some empirical support is found for economic and
institutional factors as predictor of revenue growth, the economic and institutional predictors are weaker overall than the political interest
predictors.

IPRAA WORKING PAPER 119

JEL Classification: H26, H27, H39.
Keywords: Aid, financing development, tax revenue.

We are a leading independent, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to advancing evidence-based policy solutions for sustainable economic development in Africa.

Subscribe to our Newsletter

Stay connected with IPRA’s quarterly newsletter featuring the latest news, book releases, and original content.

Newsletter Form (#4)

Become a Non-Resident Fellow

Copyright © 2025 Institute of Policy Research and Analysis. All rights reserved.