This paper examines the impact of recent tax-administration reforms on revenue performance in Botswana, leveraging newly available data from the 2025/2026 national budget cycle and the phased roll-out of digital fiscalisation. Exploiting the staggered introduction of electronic VAT invoicing, real-time transaction tracking, higher compliance monitoring at borders, and marginal rate increases for personal and corporate income taxes, we construct a synthetic-control estimate of the revenue yield.

Main results:

Results indicate that the combined reforms are associated with an immediate 6–8% uplift in total tax collections relative to the counterfactual, driven primarily by a 12% rise in VAT receipts and a 4% gain in corporate income tax.

Firm-level effects:

Difference-in-differences estimates further reveal that firms exposed to the e-invoicing mandate experienced a 30% reduction in reported sales discrepancies and a 25% increase in self-assessed liabilities.

Micro-evidence from BURS audit files:

Micro-evidence from BURS audit files shows that large taxpayers—those above P50 million in turnover—account for over half of the additional revenue, while enhanced border inspections curbed illicit trade in excisable goods by an estimated P180 million annually.

Compliance costs and conclusion:

Despite these gains, compliance costs for small enterprises rose modestly, highlighting the importance of parallel taxpayer education programmes. Overall, Botswana’s experience suggests that technology-enabled administrative reforms can materially strengthen revenue performance without recourse to higher statutory tax rates.