This paper evaluates the recent trajectory and structure of trade performance across East Africa, focusing on the East African
Community (EAC) and its broader neighbourhood. Using 2023–2024 trade statistics, customs data, and regional integration
indicators, we find that total EAC merchandise trade surpassed US$80 billion in 2023, rising 2.4 % despite a challenging global
environment. Intra-EAC trade expanded markedly faster, up 13 % to US$12.1 billion, lifting its share in total trade to 15 %—the
highest on record. Manufactured exports—textiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, iron and steel—are gaining share inside the bloc, yet
the region remains a net importer of fuels, machinery, and consumer goods, with China and the UAE supplying more than half of
total imports. Cross-border flows of staple foods and livestock illustrate both the promise and fragility of regional exchange. Above-
average maize and rice harvests in Uganda and Tanzania pushed Q1-2024 grain trade volumes well above their five-year averages,
while livestock exports surged on strong Middle-Eastern demand. Nevertheless, non-tariff barriers (NTBs), currency

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volatility—especially in Ethiopia and South Sudan—and sporadic export bans continue to distort corridors and raise transaction
costs.
On the policy side, the phased implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is beginning to complement the
EAC customs union. Early evidence shows intra-African shipments to COMESA and SADC markets rising, but utilisation of AfCFTA
preferences remains limited by shallow productive capacity and rules-of-origin constraints. Service exports—transport, tourism,
ICT—contribute over 40 % of member-state GDP, yet growth decelerated to 1.7 % in 2023, highlighting the need for regulatory
harmonisation and digital facilitation. Looking ahead, we project that continued investment in hard and soft trade infrastructure,
together with systematic monitoring and elimination of NTBs, could lift intra-regional trade beyond 20 % of total trade by 2027.
However, realising this potential will require coordinated macro-fiscal management, deeper regional value chains, and targeted
support for agricultural and industrial upgrading.