Global negotiations on trade-related aspects of electronic commerce (e-commerce) are accelerating under the aegis of the WTO’s Joint Initiative on E-Commerce (JSI), plurilateral accords, and mega-regional trade agreements. Yet the distributional consequences of emerging digital trade rules for least-developed countries (LDCs), small states, and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remain under-theorised and empirically opaque.

This paper interrogates the negotiation dynamics, substantive provisions, and strategic options that shape the region’s integration into a rapidly evolving digital trade order. Combining process-tracing of JSI negotiations (2017–2024) with a computable general equilibrium model calibrated for 47 African economies, we show that strict disciplines on data localisation, source-code disclosure, and cross-border data flows could erode tariff-equivalent preferences by 3–7% for LDC exporters while raising compliance costs that exceed 2% of GDP for small island economies. Conversely, flexibilities on customs duties, moratoria extensions, and capacity-building carve-outs can generate modest welfare gains of 0.4–1.1%, contingent on complementary investments in digital connectivity and trade facilitation.

The paper distils policy pathways coalition building within the African Group, issue-linkage in Aid-for-Trade compacts, and strategic use of S&DT provisions that enable LDCs, small states, and SSA to convert rule-making negotiations into developmental outcomes rather than asymmetric concessions.