Global negotiations on trade-related aspects of electronic commerce (e-commerce) are accelerating under the aegis of the WTO’s
Joint Initiative on E-Commerce (JSI), plurilateral accords and mega-regional trade agreements. Yet the distributional consequences
of emerging digital trade rules for least-developed countries (LDCs), small states and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remain under-
theorised and empirically opaque. This paper interrogates the negotiation dynamics, substantive provisions and strategic options that
shape the region’s integration into a rapidly evolving digital trade order. Combining process-tracing of JSI negotiations (2017-2024)
with a computable general equilibrium model calibrated for 47 African economies, we show that strict disciplines on data localisation,
source-code disclosure and cross-border data flows could erode tariff-equivalent preferences by 3-7 % for LDC exporters while
raising compliance costs that exceed 2 % of GDP for small island economies. Conversely, flexibilities on customs duties, moratoria
extensions and capacity-building carve-outs can generate modest welfare gains of 0.4-1.1 %, contingent on complementary
investments in digital connectivity and trade facilitation. The paper distils policy pathways—coalition-building within the African
Group, issue-linkage in Aid-for-Trade compacts, and strategic use of S&DT provisions—that enable LDCs, small states and SSA to
convert rule-making negotiations into developmental outcomes rather than asymmetric concessions.