This paper investigates, for the first time at the COMESA-wide level, the patterns and determinants of merchandise exports from all
twenty-one COMESA member states to the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies. Using a panel data set for 2013-2023
and a gravity model extended with supply-side, policy, and Gulf-specific controls, we find that COMESA’s exports to the Gulf are
small—averaging only 2.4 % of total extra-COMESA exports—but highly concentrated in crude oil (Libya, Sudan), gold and copper
(DR Congo, Zambia), fresh produce (Kenya, Ethiopia) and refined sugar (Eswatini). A gravity estimation reveals that bilateral exports
rise with importer GDP, hydrocarbon rents, and preferential treatment under the GCC Generalised System of Preferences, but fall
with distance, behind-the-border regulatory heterogeneity, and—crucially—logistics performance gaps. Quantile regressions show
that these determinants matter most for the upper tail of exporters; land-locked and fragile states systematically under-trade given
their potential. Counter-factual simulations indicate that a region-wide improvement in logistics performance to the level of Mauritius

could increase Gulf-bound exports by 18 %, while a modest 5 % tariff preference margin offered by GCC states would raise trade by
7 %. The paper concludes with country-specific “South-bound” export strategies that leverage existing air-cargo links, halal-
certification protocols and emerging Gulf consumer niches for horticulture and critical minerals.