This paper examines Uganda’s export performance during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on sectoral resilience, trade route adaptations, and the broader economic implications. Using a mix of macroeconomic modelling, customs data, and sector-specific case studies, we find that while Uganda’s overall exports declined by 57% in March 2020 compared to the previous year, the impact was highly heterogeneous across sectors.

Sectoral performance:

Traditional exports like coffee demonstrated notable resilience due to stable global demand and adaptive measures by the Uganda Coffee Development Authority.

Horticulture and floriculture suffered near-total collapse, with exports dropping by 90%.

Informal cross-border trade:

Informal cross-border trade, a critical component of Uganda’s export ecosystem, was severely disrupted by stringent lockdowns and border closures, leading to a 42.6% decline in informal exports. However, some agricultural exports to neighbouring countries via informal routes partially offset losses in formal channels.

Gold exports:

Gold emerged as the leading export earner, contributing 43.8% of total exports in 2020, as demand remained robust.

Broader findings:

The study highlights the role of supply chain disruptions, increased transaction costs, and shifting demand patterns in shaping export dynamics.

Policy implications:

Policy implications include the need to formalise and support informal trade, diversify export markets, and strengthen supply chain resilience to mitigate future shocks.