This paper examines Uganda’s export performance during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on sectoral resilience, trade route
adaptations, and the broader economic implications. Using a mix of macroeconomic modeling, customs data, and sector-specific
case studies, we find that while Uganda’s overall exports declined by 57% in March 2020 compared to the previous year, the impact
was highly heterogeneous across sectors. Traditional exports like coffee demonstrated notable resilience due to stable global
demand and adaptive measures by the Uganda Coffee Development Authority, while horticulture and floriculture suffered near-total
collapse, with exports dropping by 90%. Informal cross-border trade, a critical component of Uganda’s export ecosystem, was
severely disrupted by stringent lockdowns and border closures, leading to a 42.6% decline in informal exports. However, some
agricultural exports to neighboring countries via informal routes partially offset losses in formal channels. Gold emerged as the
leading export earner, contributing 43.8% of total exports in 2020, as demand remained robust. The study highlights the role of
supply chain disruptions, increased transaction costs, and shifting demand patterns in shaping export dynamics. Policy implications
include the need to formalize and support informal trade, diversify export markets, and strengthen supply chain resilience to mitigate
future shocks.