This paper investigates the role of cotton in the economic development and trade strategies of the African Cotton-Four (C-4): Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali. Using panel data from 1990–2022 and an approach that combines gravity modelling of trade flows with qualitative analysis of policy documents and stakeholder interviews, we assess how global price shocks, WTO negotiations, and domestic reforms have shaped cotton’s contribution to growth, poverty reduction, and structural transformation.

Key findings:

We find that while cotton remains the primary export earner for the C-4—accounting for 30–60% of merchandise exports—its development impact has been constrained by high input costs, limited value addition, and distortions in global markets, including subsidies in major producing countries.

Elasticity estimates:

Estimates indicate that a 10% reduction in trade-distorting support elsewhere would raise C-4 export revenues by 7–12%, translating into a 1.5–2.3 percentage-point increase in national incomes.

Conditions for realisation:

However, realisation of these gains hinges on complementary investments in ginning capacity, rural infrastructure, and regulatory institutions.

Conclusion:

The study concludes that the C-4 can leverage cotton as a catalyst for broader development only through coordinated regional strategies that:

(i) enhance productivity and quality,

(ii) capture higher shares of regional and global value chains, and

(iii) embed cotton revenues into diversified rural economies.

Policy recommendations:

Policy recommendations include establishing a regional cotton exchange, deepening engagement in WTO reform processes, and aligning cotton value-chain upgrading with national industrialisation agendas.