This paper investigates the performance of African merchandise and services exports to Asia over 2000-2023, a period marked by
Asia’s rapid ascent as both a final demand hub and a pivotal node in global value chains. Using a harmonised panel data set that
covers 49 African economies and 11 Asian destinations, we employ a gravity‐augmented stochastic frontier model to decompose
export outcomes into (i) structural determinants—market size, distance, and comparative advantage; (ii) policy and institutional
frictions—tariffs, rules of origin, logistics quality, and trade-finance constraints; and (iii) time-varying efficiency gains—driven by
regional integration initiatives, air-freight connectivity, and digital platforms. Our empirical strategy also exploits a newly constructed
product-level dataset on non-tariff measures (NTMs) and port-level dwell times to quantify the marginal impact of hard and soft
infrastructure on export margins. Results reveal that while African exports to Asia expanded at an annualised rate of 8.4
%—outpacing the continent’s exports to the rest of the world—this growth was highly concentrated: five resource-rich economies and
three commodities (crude petroleum, LNG, and unprocessed minerals) account for 71 % of the total value. Conditional on standard
gravity controls, we find that a one-standard-deviation improvement in logistics performance (measured by the World Bank’s LPI)
raises African exports to Asia by 12–15 %, an elasticity three times larger than that observed for exports to Europe or the Americas.
Conversely, stringent NTMs on agro-processed goods reduce the probability of entry by 18 % and cut export values by 9 % on the
intensive margin. Scenario simulations suggest that full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in
conjunction with targeted reductions in Asian NTMs could increase Africa’s non-fuel exports to Asia by US $27 billion (2015 dollars)
by 2035, with the largest gains accruing to textiles, horticulture, and business services. The paper concludes with policy priorities for
diversifying Africa’s export basket, deepening regional value chains, and leveraging Asia’s demand for sustainably sourced
commodities to foster structural transformation across the continent.