This paper investigates how Africa’s clothing and textile trade has evolved since the expiry of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA) quota system on 1 January 2005, with a particular focus on the role of China within global supply chains. Using newly compiled trade data (2005–2024) and firm-level evidence from leading African exporters, we document three stylised facts.

Three stylised facts:

African export values initially surged from US$0.7 billion in 2000 to US$1.8 billion in 2004 as quota-hopping Asian investors established capacity under AGOA and EU preferences, yet collapsed to US$0.7 billion by 2010 once quotas disappeared and buyers returned to lower-cost Asian suppliers.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s share of world clothing exports stagnated at roughly 0.8–1.3% between 2005 and 2017, while China’s share rose from 20% to 33% and Bangladesh and Vietnam captured the bulk of post-quota growth.

After 2015, a modest rebound—centred on Ethiopia, Kenya, and Madagascar—was driven less by price competitiveness than by rising wages in China, heightened compliance pressures elsewhere, and preferential access to the US and EU markets.

China’s dual role:

We show that China’s role has shifted from a quota-constrained competitor to a dual player:

(i) a dominant supplier of cheap fabrics and yarn to African producers, raising import dependence on Chinese intermediates; and

(ii) an increasingly competitive exporter of finished garments to Africa’s own consumer markets, undermining domestic spinning and weaving operations.

Rules-of-origin effects:

Econometric analysis reveals that African countries with rules-of-origin clauses allowing third-country fabrics (AGOA’s “third-country fabric derogation”) expanded exports 12% faster than those with stricter origin rules, but this growth remains concentrated in low-value cut-make-trim (CMT) assembly for a narrow range of basic items.

Policy outlook:

Looking ahead, the paper argues that Africa’s ability to move beyond marginal market share hinges on leveraging regional value chains (e.g., South African retail demand), upgrading into textiles and higher-value garments, and negotiating more flexible cumulation provisions with both Chinese and Western partners. Absent such policies, the post-quota era risks cementing Africa’s position as a peripheral, preference-dependent supplier while China consolidates its dominance across the entire clothing and textile value chain.