The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Services Agenda stands at a pivotal juncture as Phase-II protocols on investment, intellectual property rights, and competition policy enter the ratification phase and negotiators prepare to launch Phase-III e-commerce talks. This paper distils evidence from recent legal texts, WTO Trade Policy Reviews, and stakeholder consultations to assess how close the AfCFTA is to delivering a truly integrated African services market.

Regulatory fragmentation:

We find that, while tariff commitments in five priority sectors (business, communication, financial, transport, and tourism services) have advanced, significant regulatory fragmentation persists. Non-tariff barriers—licensing restrictions, nationality requirements, and mutual-recognition gaps—remain the dominant constraint, potentially offsetting up to 60% of the projected US$14 billion welfare gains.

Methodology and scenario analysis:

Combining computable general equilibrium modelling with firm-level survey data from Ghana, Kenya, and Morocco, we quantify the impact of alternative liberalisation pathways. Scenario analysis shows that deep disciplines on domestic regulation, coupled with an ambitious e-commerce protocol that safeguards cross-border data flows, could triple intra-African services trade by 2035 and create 2 million new jobs, two-thirds of which would accrue to women.

Three critical levers:

The paper identifies three critical levers for the “road ahead”:

Accelerating the ratification and implementation of Phase-II protocols;

Embedding regulatory-cooperation provisions—such as joint professional standards and continental digital-ID frameworks—within the Phase-III e-commerce negotiations; and

Mobilising Afreximbank’s US$1 billion Services Adjustment Facility to support SMEs in meeting compliance costs.

Conclusion and governance roadmap:

We conclude with a governance roadmap that synchronises AfCFTA implementation with the AU’s Digital Transformation Strategy and the AfDB’s High-Five priorities, ensuring that the services agenda becomes an engine for resilient, inclusive, and green growth across the continent.