The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Services Agenda stands at a pivotal juncture as Phase-II protocols on investment,
intellectual-property rights and competition policy enter the ratification phase and negotiators prepare to launch Phase-III e-
commerce talks. This paper distils evidence from recent legal texts, WTO Trade Policy Reviews, and stakeholder consultations to
assess how close the AfCFTA is to delivering a truly integrated African services market. We find that, while tariff commitments in five
priority sectors (business, communication, financial, transport and tourism services) have advanced, significant regulatory
fragmentation persists. Non-tariff barriers—licensing restrictions, nationality requirements and mutual-recognition gaps—remain
the dominant constraint, potentially offsetting up to 60 % of the projected US$ 14 billion welfare gains.
Combining computable-general-equilibrium modelling with firm-level survey data from Ghana, Kenya and Morocco—we quantify
the impact of alternative liberalisation pathways. Scenario analysis shows that deep disciplines on domestic regulation, coupled with
an ambitious e-commerce protocol that safeguards cross-border data flows, could triple intra-African services trade by 2035 and
create 2 million new jobs, two-thirds of which would accrue to women.
The paper identifies three critical levers for the “road ahead”: (1) accelerating the ratification and implementation of Phase-II
protocols; (2) embedding regulatory-cooperation provisions—such as joint professional standards and continental digital-ID
frameworks—within the Phase-III e-commerce negotiations; and (3) mobilising Afreximbank’s US$ 1 billion Services Adjustment
Facility to support SMEs in meeting compliance costs. We conclude with a governance roadmap that synchronises AfCFTA
implementation with the AU’s Digital Transformation Strategy and the AfDB’s High-Five priorities, ensuring that the services agenda
becomes an engine for resilient, inclusive and green growth across the continent.