This paper examines the Federal Reserve’s July 2025 policy stance at the critical juncture where inflation, though markedly lower
than its 2022 peak, remained stuck a perceptible distance above the 2 % target—the proverbial “final mile” of disinflation. Drawing on
the minutes of the July 29–30 FOMC meeting, the associated post-meeting statement, and contemporaneous market and macro
data
[^6], we show how the Committee balanced competing imperatives: the need to ease financial conditions enough to avoid an
unnecessary growth slowdown while still anchoring long-run inflation expectations near target. We document three key results. First,
despite White House pressure for an immediate cut, the FOMC kept the federal-funds target range at 4¼–4½ %, with only two
dissenting voters preferring a 25 bp reduction. This decision reflected an assessment that progress on the disinflation “last mile”
remained fragile—headline CPI had re-accelerated to 3.4 % y/y in June[^6]—and that labor markets, though cooling, were still tight
enough to sustain wage-push pressures in services. Second, we show that the Fed’s communication strategy evolved to emphasize
“balanced” risk management: the July statement explicitly highlighted downside risks to employment alongside upside risks to
inflation, underscoring data-dependence rather than a preset path. Market pricing nevertheless swung from pricing barely one cut to
re-instating two 25 bp cuts by year-end, suggesting that the Fed’s nuanced message only partially anchored expectations. Finally, we
link the July decision to the ongoing framework review. The Committee’s reaffirmation of flexible 2 % inflation targeting—without the
“make-up” provisions of the 2020 FAIT regime—helped solidify the credibility of its commitment to price stability, even as it declined
to ease pre-emptively. Overall, the episode illustrates how, in the final mile of disinflation, the Fed navigated between the Scylla of
overtightening and the Charybdis of re-anchoring expectations at a permanently higher level. The July 2025 intermeeting period thus
offers a live case study of modern central banking at the zero lower bound’s mirror image: a high-rate environment where
communication, not the level of the policy rate, becomes the marginal tool of stabilization.