Regional integration has long been heralded as the key to unlocking East Africa’s latent economic dynamism and consolidating its
political stability, yet progress has been uneven and the dividends unevenly distributed. This paper proposes a holistic, evidence-
based framework—grounded in original geospatial, trade-flow, and household-level data as well as 140 stakeholder interviews—for
moving the region from a customs union to a fully integrated economic and social community by 2040. We first diagnose the binding
constraints that persist despite two decades of EAC reforms: non-tariff barriers that add an estimated 8 % to intra-regional trade
costs, regulatory misalignment that suppresses cross-border investment by 19 %, and widening infrastructure gaps in transport
corridors and digital connectivity. We then model three integration pathways—Incremental, Leapfrog, and Stalled—under varying
assumptions of policy ambition, financing availability, and geopolitical shocks. Our computable general-equilibrium simulations show
that an ambitious Leapfrog scenario could raise regional GDP by $145 billion and create up to 4.1 million new jobs by 2035, while
reducing inequality both within and between countries. Critically, we demonstrate that these gains hinge on three catalytic enablers:
(i) a harmonised regulatory sandbox for fintech and e-commerce; (ii) a regional green-industrialisation fund capitalised at $12 billion
to crowd-in private investment in battery metals processing, renewable energy grids, and agro-value chains; and (iii) a supranational
dispute-resolution tribunal with direct effect on national courts. To operationalise these reforms, the paper advances a phased
governance architecture that layers supranational competencies onto existing EAC organs without reopening treaty negotiations, and
it sets out a financing strategy that blends diaspora bonds, sovereign-patent royalties, and carbon-market revenues. Finally, we
stress-test the integration agenda against three existential risks—climate-driven food insecurity, pandemic recurrence, and external
debt distress—and propose an East African Resilience Compact that embeds contingency clauses in all major regional agreements.
Our findings suggest that an integrated East Africa is not only technically feasible but politically saleable if anchored in tangible, near-
term benefits for firms, farmers, and consumers.