We present the “July Package,” a WTO-anchored initiative that grants the 46 least-developed and 32 lower-middle-income countries
duty-free, quota-free (DFQF) entry for 98 % of non-agricultural tariff lines while preserving their right to maintain flexibilities for
infant industries. Using a calibrated multi-region, multi-sector CGE model and firm-level customs micro-data from 19 beneficiary
countries, we estimate that the Package would raise developing-country exports of manufactures by US92billion(11.2 27 billion, with
one-third accruing to preference-granting partners via cheaper intermediate inputs. Extensive-margin responses dominate: 18 % of
existing exporters start shipping new products, and 7 % enter previously untouched markets. Rules-of-origin compliance costs,
currently 4 % of shipment value, fall below 1 % under simplified cumulation rules proposed in the Package. By combining
unprecedented market access with pragmatic safeguards, the July Package offers a politically feasible blueprint for re-invigorating
the WTO’s development dimension after two decades of impasse.
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