This paper investigates the trade and employment consequences for Africa of the expiry on 1 January 2005 of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA) and its successor, the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). Using panel data on textile and clothing (T&C) exports from 1990–2016 together with newly compiled firm-level employment surveys from nine African economies, we find that the removal of quantitative restrictions was followed by a 14% contraction in African T&C export values to the EU and a 9% fall to the United States, even as world T&C trade expanded by 30%.

Decomposition analysis:

Decomposition analysis shows that three-quarters of the decline is attributable to the displacement of African products by lower-priced Chinese and Indian goods, while the remainder reflects eroding preferences under AGOA and tightening rules of origin.

Employment effects:

Employment effects are heterogeneous. Lesotho, Kenya, and Mauritius—where T&C accounted for up to 80% of manufacturing jobs—lost an estimated 105,000 positions (28% of sector employment) within three years, concentrated among young women in cut-make-trim operations. By contrast, Ethiopia, Madagascar, and Senegal, which upgraded into higher-unit-value niche products, experienced net job creation of 7% despite static or falling export volumes.

Simulation results:

A partial-equilibrium simulation suggests that every 10% loss in T&C export share reduces female manufacturing employment by 4.2% and government social-security contributions by 2.9%. Policy simulations indicate that a 5% reduction in African T&C tariffs on imported inputs coupled with a 10% improvement in lead-time reliability would offset roughly half of the MFA-related losses.

Conclusion:

The paper concludes that the end of the MFA exposed structural competitiveness gaps rather than causing them, and that targeted industrial policies—especially logistics upgrading, input-cost mitigation, and regional market diversification—are critical if Africa is to reclaim employment and export dynamism in the post-quota era.