Developments in intra-trade in Africa

Abstract

Intra-African trade remains below its potential, contributing only 15 % of the continent’s total commerce in 2023. This paper reviews
the most recent developments—policy, infrastructural, and firm-level—that are reshaping regional exchange against the backdrop
of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Combining a systematic literature review (2018-2024) with fresh evidence from
customs micro-data in six pilot countries and 78 semi-structured interviews, we document three key trends. First, tariff liberalisation
under AfCFTA’s Guided Trade Initiative has already lifted preferential trade in 96 tariff lines by 34 %, but rules-of-origin compliance
costs and non-tariff barriers still erode up to one-third of the preferential margin. Second, logistics performance is improving fastest
along the Northern and Central corridors, where average border dwell-time fell from 24 h in 2019 to 11 h in 2023, driven by one-
stop border points and expanded e-manifest systems; yet the last-mile cost from major hubs to secondary cities remains four times
higher than in Asia. Third, digital marketplaces are emerging as a new channel of intra-African trade, with B2B platform revenues
growing 48 % annually; however, cross-border payment fragmentation limits their scale. Using a partial-equilibrium model calibrated
on the new data, we estimate that full implementation of AfCFTA trade-facilitation measures could raise intra-African trade by
27–33 % by 2030, with the largest gains accruing to agro-processing, automotive, and pharmaceutical value chains. The paper
concludes with a roadmap of targeted investments—harmonised technical regulations, corridor-specific logistics upgrades, and an
African Payments and Settlements Platform—that can convert the current momentum into sustained structural change.

IPRAA WORKING PAPER 49

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