This paper maps and analyses trade patterns that have emerged within the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite single market—an
integration zone that links 29 African economies through overlapping Free Trade Areas. Using newly-released customs data (2018-
2023), we quantify the intensity, composition and direction of intraregional trade flows and assess how the Tripartite’s phased tariff
liberalisation has altered them.
Three stylised facts stand out.
(1) Utilisation asymmetries: Only 39.8 % of eligible COMESA-FTA preferences and 25.3 % of SADC preferences are actually
claimed, whereas the East African Community (EAC) achieves 77.9 %
(2) Hub-and-spoke geography: South Africa, Kenya and Egypt act as dominant export platforms, supplying 54 % of all recorded
intra-Tripartite manufactures; smaller members remain locked in low-value, primary-good exports.

(3) Policy-driven trade deflection: When traders can choose among competing rules of origin, they systematically favour the
regime with the lowest compliance cost—most often COMESA over SADC—illustrating how administrative design shapes
realised rather than potential trade.
A multi-region computable-general-equilibrium simulation calibrated to 2023 tariffs shows that full Tripartite liberalisation would
raise real income within the zone by US$ 578 million per year, but gains are uneven: South Africa, SACU and Kenya capture 68 % of
the welfare increment, while Zimbabwe, Zambia and parts of Central Africa experience terms-of-trade losses
.Finally, we evaluate the consistency of observed trade patterns with AfCFTA’s longer-run integration agenda. Harmonising rules of
origin, streamlining border procedures, and investing in regional value-chain infrastructure—especially in transport corridors
connecting landlocked members to coastal hubs—are found to be critical if the Tripartite is to evolve from a market of privileged
access into a genuine single economic space.