We present the “July Package,” a WTO-anchored initiative that grants the 46 least-developed and 32 lower-middle-income countries duty-free, quota-free (DFQF) entry for 98% of non-agricultural tariff lines while preserving their right to maintain flexibilities for infant industries. Using a calibrated multi-region, multi-sector CGE model and firm-level customs micro-data from 19 beneficiary countries, we estimate that the Package would raise developing-country exports of manufactures by US$92 billion (11.2%)—including a US$27 billion increase, with one-third accruing to preference-granting partners via cheaper intermediate inputs.

Extensive-margin responses:

Extensive-margin responses dominate: 18% of existing exporters start shipping new products, and 7% enter previously untouched markets.

Rules-of-origin simplification:

Rules-of-origin compliance costs, currently 4% of shipment value, fall below 1% under simplified cumulation rules proposed in the Package.

Conclusion:

By combining unprecedented market access with pragmatic safeguards, the July Package offers a politically feasible blueprint for re-invigorating the WTO’s development dimension after two decades of impasse.