This paper investigates how Africa’s clothing and textile trade has evolved since the expiry of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA)
quota system on 1 January 2005, with a particular focus on the role of China within global supply chains. Using newly-compiled trade
data (2005-2024) and firm-level evidence from leading African exporters, we document three stylised facts. First, African export
values initially surged from US$0.7 billion in 2000 to US$1.8 billion in 2004 as quota-hopping Asian investors established capacity
under AGOA and EU preferences, yet collapsed to US$0.7 billion by 2010 once quotas disappeared and buyers returned to lower-
cost Asian suppliers. Second, Sub-Saharan Africa’s share of world clothing exports stagnated at roughly 0.8–1.3 % between 2005 and
2017, while China’s share rose from 20 % to 33 % and Bangladesh and Vietnam captured the bulk of post-quota growth. Third, after
2015 a modest rebound—centred on Ethiopia, Kenya and Madagascar—was driven less by price competitiveness than by rising
wages in China, heightened compliance pressures elsewhere, and preferential access to the US and EU markets. We show that
China’s role has shifted from a quota-constrained competitor to a dual player: (i) a dominant supplier of cheap fabrics and yarn to
African producers, raising import dependence on Chinese intermediates, and (ii) an increasingly competitive exporter of finished
garments to Africa’s own consumer markets, undermining domestic spinning and weaving operations. Econometric analysis reveals
that African countries with rules-of-origin clauses allowing third-country fabrics (AGOA’s “third-country fabric derogation”)
expanded exports 12 % faster than those with stricter origin rules, but this growth remains concentrated in low-value cut-make-trim
(CMT) assembly for a narrow range of basic items. Looking ahead, the paper argues that Africa’s ability to move beyond marginal
market share hinges on leveraging regional value chains (e.g., South African retail demand), upgrading into textiles and higher-value

garments, and negotiating more flexible cumulation provisions with both Chinese and Western partners. Absent such policies, the
post-quota era risks cementing Africa’s position as a peripheral, preference-dependent supplier while China consolidates its
dominance across the entire clothing and textile value chain.