This paper presents the first systematic, high-frequency evidence on how Anglo-African merchandise and services exports adjusted during the transitory phase of Brexit (January 2017 – December 2020). Merging UN Comtrade, IMF DOTS, and FOB shipping-scanner data for 19 African economies that trade preferentially with the United Kingdom, we identify three stylised facts.

Three stylised facts:

Aggregate Anglo-African export growth decelerated from 7.1% y-o-y in 2016 to 2.3% in 2019, but the timing and depth of the slowdown varied by rule-of-origin intensity and logistics connectivity.

At the product level, a 10-percentage-point increase in EU-27 value-added content in an African good raised the probability of a post-referendum export entry drop by 3.8%, suggesting that Rules of Origin uncertainty outweighed sterling depreciation.

Service exports—particularly business-process outsourcing and creative industries—displayed partial insulation, benefiting from reduced UK–EU labour mobility and a re-shoring of tasks to lower-cost African suppliers.

Difference-in-differences estimates:

Difference-in-differences estimates exploiting the staggered activation of Technical Barriers to Trade notifications show that sectors facing higher UK-specific standards experienced a 6–9% cumulative loss in export value relative to those already aligned with EU norms.

Conclusion:

Overall, our findings indicate that the Brexit transition eroded, but did not sever, Anglo-African trade linkages, with heterogeneous effects mediated by supply-chain complexity, preferential-margin erosion, and digital delivery capacity. The paper concludes by outlining policy scenarios for the post-TCA period.