This paper tests whether the theory of comparative advantage can account for Uganda’s observed export performance across
products and destinations. Using highly-disaggregated, HS-6 digit trade data from UN-COMTRADE (2001-2022) and the Revealed
Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, we show that only 234 of 4,401 product lines exhibit statistically significant RCA values for
Uganda—representing <5 % of the country’s potential export basket. While these products—dominated by unprocessed coffee,
tobacco, maize, tea, and a narrow set of light manufactures—explain the bulk of Uganda’s exports to traditional East African
Community (EAC) partners, they fall short of explaining the full structure of exports to emerging destinations such as China and the
Middle East. Difference-in-differences estimates exploiting the phased tariff liberalisation under the EAC Customs Union
(2005–2015) indicate that newly acquired RCA is concentrated in agro-processed items, suggesting that trade policy can shift, but
not fundamentally broaden, Uganda’s comparative advantage. Counterfactual simulations further reveal that if supply-side
constraints—particularly in energy, logistics, and standards compliance—were relaxed, Uganda could diversify into at least 437
additional product lines with latent RCA, mainly in light manufacturing and processed agriculture. Overall, the findings imply that
classical comparative advantage explains a modest share of Uganda’s current export patterns, but policy-driven improvements in
competitiveness and supply capacity are required to transform latent into active comparative advantage. The paper concludes with
targeted recommendations for leveraging regional value chains, upgrading quality infrastructure, and prioritising public investment
in the identified “near-RCA” sectors to sustain export-led growth.