This paper tests whether the theory of comparative advantage can account for Uganda’s observed export performance across products and destinations. Using highly disaggregated, HS-6 digit trade data from UN Comtrade (2001–2022) and the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, we show that only 234 of 4,401 product lines exhibit statistically significant RCA values for Uganda—representing <5% of the country’s potential export basket.

Concentration of comparative advantage:

While these products—dominated by unprocessed coffee, tobacco, maize, tea, and a narrow set of light manufactures—explain the bulk of Uganda’s exports to traditional East African Community (EAC) partners, they fall short of explaining the full structure of exports to emerging destinations such as China and the Middle East.

Trade policy and comparative advantage:

Difference-in-differences estimates exploiting the phased tariff liberalisation under the EAC Customs Union (2005–2015) indicate that newly acquired RCA is concentrated in agro-processed items, suggesting that trade policy can shift, but not fundamentally broaden, Uganda’s comparative advantage.

Counterfactual simulations:

Counterfactual simulations further reveal that if supply-side constraints—particularly in energy, logistics, and standards compliance—were relaxed, Uganda could diversify into at least 437 additional product lines with latent RCA, mainly in light manufacturing and processed agriculture.

Conclusion:

Overall, the findings imply that classical comparative advantage explains a modest share of Uganda’s current export patterns, but policy-driven improvements in competitiveness and supply capacity are required to transform latent into active comparative advantage.

Recommendations:

The paper concludes with targeted recommendations for leveraging regional value chains, upgrading quality infrastructure, and prioritising public investment in the identified “near-RCA” sectors to sustain export-led growth.