Doha Round negotiations on the green box and beyond: where are we heading?

Abstract

This paper assesses the trajectory of WTO disciplines on domestic support in the aftermath of the stalled Doha Round, with special
attention to the so-called “green box.” Combining legal-text analysis, economic modelling and a review of recent negotiating
proposals (2008–2024), we trace how the original Doha mandate to “review and clarify” green-box criteria has morphed into a
broader debate on environmental conditionality, public stockholding for food security and the interface between trade rules and
climate policies. We find that: (i) despite the Round’s suspension, de facto convergence is emerging on tighter notification, enhanced
transparency and the insertion of climate-related safeguards; (ii) the green box is increasingly used by both developed and large
emerging economies, raising new questions about its non- or minimal-trade-distorting nature; and (iii) plurilateral initiatives—ranging
from the Environmental Goods Agreement to the EU–Mercosur Green Trade Protocol—risk creating a patchwork of standards that
could erode multilateral disciplines. The paper concludes that the next negotiating cycle is unlikely to reopen the single undertaking,
but will instead rely on issue-specific “Doha-plus” packages that embed green-box reforms within broader environmental and food-
security bargains.

IPRAA WORKING PAPER 56

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