“Feeling the Elephant’s Weight” interrogates the emerging spatial and scalar re-ordering of African trade after the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) came into force in 2024. Combining new firm-to-firm transaction data with satellite-derived freight flows and a calibrated general-equilibrium model, we show that the agreement’s headline 90% tariff elimination has already shifted 14% of intra-African trade from the continent’s traditional coastal gateways to a set of twenty-three inland “relay cities” that sit on the Tripartite corridor network.

Decoupling of logistics centrality from income capture:

These cities—stretching from Lubumbashi to Mekelle—now intermediate 31% of all TFTA-qualifying consignments, but absorb only 19% of the associated value-added, revealing a pronounced decoupling of logistics centrality from income capture.

Three interacting frictions:

We trace this asymmetry to three interacting frictions:

(i) persistent non-tariff barriers whose ad-valorem equivalent remains 9–12%;

(ii) a 2.4-day average increase in border dwell-time for small- and medium-sized exporters relative to large firms; and

(iii) a 37% rise in empty backhaul rates on the North–South corridor after South African retailers re-optimised procurement post-liberalisation.

Counterfactual simulations:

Counterfactual simulations indicate that a coordinated investment package—$4.8 billion in hard infrastructure and a 50% cut in documentary compliance time—would triple the inland share of value-added, turning the relay cities into genuine production platforms rather than transit depots.

Risk of hub-and-spoke pattern:

Conversely, failure to address the frictions risks locking the continent into a hub-and-spoke pattern where the Tripartite zone becomes a throughput belt for extra-African value chains.

Welfare implications:

The paper closes by quantifying the welfare implications of these alternative spatial equilibria: full implementation could raise real incomes by 2.7% in low-income member states and 1.1% continent-wide, whereas partial implementation yields gains below 0.4% and increases regional inequality.

Conclusion:

By “feeling the elephant’s weight” at each node of the new network, we provide the first geographically disaggregated assessment of what Africa’s largest trade agreement actually weighs—on the ground and in the pockets of its citizens.