This paper investigates, for the first time at the COMESA-wide level, the patterns and determinants of merchandise exports from all twenty-one COMESA member states to the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies. Using a panel dataset for 2013–2023 and a gravity model extended with supply-side, policy, and Gulf-specific controls, we find that COMESA’s exports to the Gulf are small—averaging only 2.4% of total extra-COMESA exports—but highly concentrated in crude oil (Libya, Sudan), gold and copper (DR Congo, Zambia), fresh produce (Kenya, Ethiopia), and refined sugar (Eswatini).

Gravity estimation results:

A gravity estimation reveals that bilateral exports rise with importer GDP, hydrocarbon rents, and preferential treatment under the GCC Generalised System of Preferences, but fall with distance, behind-the-border regulatory heterogeneity, and—crucially—logistics performance gaps.

Quantile regressions:

Quantile regressions show that these determinants matter most for the upper tail of exporters; landlocked and fragile states systematically under-trade given their potential.

Counterfactual simulations:

Counterfactual simulations indicate that a region-wide improvement in logistics performance to the level of Mauritius could increase Gulf-bound exports by 18%, while a modest 5% tariff preference margin offered by GCC states would raise trade by 7%.

Conclusion:

The paper concludes with country-specific “South-bound” export strategies that leverage existing air-cargo links, halal certification protocols, and emerging Gulf consumer niches for horticulture and critical minerals