This paper quantifies how the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union has reshaped EU-Africa trade. Using a panel of
African exports to the EU-27 and the UK (2002-2021) and a difference-in-difference design, we show that Brexit has simultaneously
depressed Africa’s UK-bound shipments while leaving EU-Africa flows largely intact. Specifically, African exports to the UK fell by
20–30 % relative to the same products shipped to the EU after the 2016 referendum; the UK’s share in Africa’s total exports dropped
from 4.15 % to 3.14 % between 2016 and 2020. The decline is driven by policy uncertainty, new rules-of-origin requirements,
duplicated border checks via EU ports, and the loss of cumulation privileges under the EU’s Economic Partnership Agreements.
Sectorally, fuels and agricultural goods suffered the largest losses, while industrial products proved more resilient. Indirect spill-
overs on EU-Africa trade are negligible: ACP inputs embedded in EU-UK commerce are too small to matter at the aggregate level.
Our findings imply that Brexit has effectively shifted Africa’s export orientation away from the UK and toward the remaining EU-27,
reinforcing the Union’s position as Africa’s dominant trade partner and highlighting the need for targeted Aid-for-Trade measures to
offset the UK market loss.