This paper quantifies how the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union has reshaped EU–Africa trade. Using a panel of African exports to the EU-27 and the UK (2002–2021) and a difference-in-differences design, we show that Brexit has simultaneously depressed Africa’s UK-bound shipments while leaving EU–Africa flows largely intact.

Key findings:

Specifically, African exports to the UK fell by 20–30% relative to the same products shipped to the EU after the 2016 referendum; the UK’s share in Africa’s total exports dropped from 4.15% to 3.14% between 2016 and 2020.

The decline is driven by policy uncertainty, new rules-of-origin requirements, duplicated border checks via EU ports, and the loss of cumulation privileges under the EU’s Economic Partnership Agreements.

Sectoral impacts:

Sectorally, fuels and agricultural goods suffered the largest losses, while industrial products proved more resilient.

Spill-overs on EU–Africa trade:

Indirect spill-overs on EU–Africa trade are negligible: ACP inputs embedded in EU–UK commerce are too small to matter at the aggregate level.

Conclusion and policy implications:

Our findings imply that Brexit has effectively shifted Africa’s export orientation away from the UK and toward the remaining EU-27, reinforcing the Union’s position as Africa’s dominant trade partner and highlighting the need for targeted Aid-for-Trade measures to offset the UK market loss.