This paper offers a preliminary quantitative and qualitative assessment of how the market-access reforms currently tabled under the
WTO Doha Round could reshape agricultural trade opportunities for Least-Developed Countries (LDCs). Using a stylised tiered-

formula liberalisation scenario consistent with the July 2005 Framework and the Hong Kong Ministerial texts, we simulate the
combined effect of: (i) deep cuts in developed-country bound agricultural tariffs, (ii) disciplined use of sensitive-product designations,
and (iii) full exemption of LDCs from reciprocal tariff commitments. Results indicate that even with special and differential treatment,
LDCs face a heterogeneous set of outcomes. Traditional preference-dependent exporters (e.g., sugar, bananas) confront erosion of
margins that could offset gains from improved Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) access, while net food-importing LDCs confront higher
world prices for cereals and dairy that may deteriorate their terms of trade. Conversely, LDCs specialising in non-preference-
constrained products—such as cotton, groundnuts and selected horticultural goods—stand to secure measurable increases in export
volumes and revenues, provided supply-side constraints are addressed. Across all LDCs, the removal of developed-country export
subsidies and the disciplining of domestic support are expected to raise world prices in the 3–8 % range for key commodities,
generating modest but positive welfare effects for the group as a whole. The paper concludes by identifying data gaps and capacity-
building priorities that will determine whether LDCs can translate these prospective market-access gains into sustained poverty-
reducing growth.