This paper investigates the performance of African merchandise and services exports to Asia over 2000–2023, a period marked by Asia’s rapid ascent as both a final demand hub and a pivotal node in global value chains. Using a harmonised panel dataset that covers 49 African economies and 11 Asian destinations, we employ a gravity-augmented stochastic frontier model to decompose export outcomes into:

(i) structural determinants—market size, distance, and comparative advantage;

(ii) policy and institutional frictions—tariffs, rules of origin, logistics quality, and trade-finance constraints; and

(iii) time-varying efficiency gains—driven by regional integration initiatives, air-freight connectivity, and digital platforms.

Empirical strategy:

Our empirical strategy also exploits a newly constructed product-level dataset on non-tariff measures (NTMs) and port-level dwell times to quantify the marginal impact of hard and soft infrastructure on export margins.

Key findings:

Results reveal that while African exports to Asia expanded at an annualised rate of 8.4%—outpacing the continent’s exports to the rest of the world—this growth was highly concentrated: five resource-rich economies and three commodities (crude petroleum, LNG, and unprocessed minerals) account for 71% of the total value.

Logistics performance elasticity:

Conditional on standard gravity controls, we find that a one-standard-deviation improvement in logistics performance (measured by the World Bank’s LPI) raises African exports to Asia by 12–15%, an elasticity three times larger than that observed for exports to Europe or the Americas.

Impact of NTMs:

Conversely, stringent NTMs on agro-processed goods reduce the probability of entry by 18% and cut export values by 9% on the intensive margin.

Scenario simulations:

Scenario simulations suggest that full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in conjunction with targeted reductions in Asian NTMs could increase Africa’s non-fuel exports to Asia by US$27 billion (2015 dollars) by 2035, with the largest gains accruing to textiles, horticulture, and business services.

Conclusion and policy priorities:

The paper concludes with policy priorities for diversifying Africa’s export basket, deepening regional value chains, and leveraging Asia’s demand for sustainably sourced commodities to foster structural transformation across the continent.