This paper evaluates Uganda’s public expenditure management system (PEMS) against the backdrop of two decades of reform aimed at enhancing fiscal discipline, allocative efficiency, and service-delivery outcomes. Drawing on the 2022 Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessment, recent Ministry of Finance policy statements, and secondary literature, we find that Uganda has built a relatively robust PEMS anchored by:

(i) a Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) that links strategic plans to multi-year budget ceilings;

(ii) an Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) that generates timely and comprehensive fiscal reports; and

(iii) a legal-institutional framework that mandates gender- and equity-responsive budgeting.

Measurable gains:

These features have yielded measurable gains: fifteen of thirty-one PEFA indicators now score “A” or “B,” signifying good or above-average performance, while transparency to the public and predictability of transfers to sub-national governments have improved markedly since 2016.

Persistent weaknesses:

Nevertheless, significant weaknesses persist. Revenue forecasting errors undermine budget credibility; project appraisal and selection procedures do not yet guarantee value for money; internal-control enforcement is uneven, resulting in accumulation of expenditure arrears; and medium-term budget projections often diverge from actual allocations, eroding the MTEF’s usefulness as a planning tool.

The 2025–2030 Public Financial Management Reform Strategy:

The 2025–2030 Public Financial Management Reform Strategy responds to these shortcomings by prioritising stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, tighter commitment controls, and enhanced oversight capacity in Parliament and line ministries.

Methodology and assessment:

Using a mixed-methods design—combining PEFA scores, budget execution data, and key-informant interviews—we assess whether incremental reforms can address structural bottlenecks or whether deeper political-economy constraints (such as limited legislative scrutiny time and delayed implementation of audit recommendations) will continue to dilute efficiency gains.

Conclusion:

The paper concludes with policy options for tightening the feedback loop between performance evaluation and resource allocation, thereby aligning Uganda’s PEMS more closely with the country’s industrialisation and poverty-reduction ambitions under Vision 2040.