This paper provides the first systematic empirical assessment of how regulatory convergence within the COMESA–EAC–SADC Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) affects trade flows among the 29 Member/Partner States. Using a newly constructed dataset that maps the harmonisation of technical regulations, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, rules of origin, and competition policy from 2010 to 2023, we estimate a structural gravity model augmented with time-varying indices of regulatory alignment.

Main findings:

We find that each standard deviation increase in regulatory convergence is associated with a 12–18% rise in bilateral trade, with the largest gains accruing to agricultural and processed-food products where standards previously diverged most sharply. The effect is strongest for EAC members—who already share a relatively harmonised regulatory regime—and weakest for SADC exporters facing more complex product-specific rules of origin.

Counterfactual simulations:

Counterfactual simulations suggest that full convergence to best-practice EAC levels could expand intra-TFTA trade by up to 34%, equivalent to an additional US$9 billion annually, and disproportionately benefit smaller economies through improved market access and reduced compliance costs.

Remaining constraints:

However, residual non-tariff barriers, notably administrative procedures and mutual recognition gaps, continue to mute the gains from regulatory harmonisation.

Conclusion:

Our findings indicate that while the TFTA’s explicit focus on regulatory convergence is already bearing fruit, accelerating implementation of common conformity-assessment procedures and digital NTB-monitoring systems will be critical for realising the arrangement’s ambitious trade-creation potential.