Securing a development package from the WTO negotiations on trade in services: The best is yet tocome,

Abstract

This paper examines strategies for safeguarding a development-oriented package of flexibilities and concessions within the ongoing
World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations on trade in services (TiSA/GATS). Drawing on recent negotiating texts, member-state
submissions, and secondary literature, we identify the principal threats to development-friendly provisions in the areas of Mode 4
labor mobility, domestic regulation disciplines, and special & differential treatment (S&DT). We then propose a three-tier “defensive
architecture” that combines (1) coalition-building among low- and lower-middle-income countries to enlarge bargaining leverage; (2)
legal-text engineering—anchoring development objectives in enforceable treaty language and safeguard clauses; and (3) issue-
linkage strategies that tie services outcomes to parallel negotiations on agriculture, intellectual property, and dispute-settlement
reform. Using game-theoretic simulations calibrated to 2022–2024 negotiating positions, we demonstrate that this architecture raises
the probability of retaining a meaningful development package from 35 % under status-quo tactics to 71 %. The paper concludes with
concrete recommendations for negotiators and civil-society coalitions to operationalize these insights before the 13th Ministerial
Conference.

IPRAA WORKING PAPER 147

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