Uganda’s public debt has surged to approximately UGX 106 trillion (USD 29 billion) as of December 2024, representing a self-
inflicted crisis driven by imprudent fiscal policies, misaligned priorities, and governance failures rather than external shocks. This
paper examines how Uganda’s debt trajectory—rising from 34.6% of GDP in 2018/19 to a projected 53% in 2025/26—reflects
systemic policy choices, including excessive reliance on non-concessional borrowing, inflated infrastructure projects with
questionable returns, and chronic revenue shortfalls exacerbated by tax exemptions and corruption. Key findings reveal that debt
servicing now consumes over 30% of government revenue, crowding out critical investments in health, education, and social
protection. The shift toward commercial loans—including USD 1 billion in non-concessional Chinese loans (2015–2020) and
domestic debt issuances at punitive interest rates—has amplified fiscal vulnerabilities, with external debt exposure further strained by
currency depreciation. Despite official claims of “sustainability,” debt distress risks are mounting, as evidenced by breaches in export-
to-debt thresholds under stress scenarios. The paper argues that Uganda’s crisis is “self-inflicted”, rooted in political incentives for
short-term gains over long-term stability, opaque contracting processes, and ideologically driven policies (e.g., laws triggering aid
suspensions) that forced costlier borrowing. Policy recommendations emphasize fiscal consolidation via tax reforms, restructuring
costly commercial debt, and institutional safeguards to curb political interference in debt management. Without urgent corrective
action, Uganda risks a sovereign default spiral, with irreversible consequences for poverty reduction and economic sovereignty.