This paper evaluates the revenue effects of Malawi’s comprehensive tax reforms implemented between 2013 and 2022. Using
administrative panel data from the Malawi Revenue Authority and difference-in-differences identification that exploits staggered roll-
out across tax instruments, we find that reforms increased the tax-to-GDP ratio by 3.4 percentage points, with three-quarters of the
gain driven by improvements in VAT compliance and withholding regimes for small firms. Excise tax redesign—particularly on
tobacco and alcohol—accounted for most of the remainder, while corporate income tax collections were flat once profit-shifting
responses are netted out. Dynamic revenue analysis shows that gains emerged within two fiscal years and persisted even after
controlling for GDP growth and aid inflows. Heterogeneous effects reveal larger improvements in urban districts and among medium-
size enterprises that received targeted e-filing incentives. Counter-factual simulations indicate that accelerating VAT invoice matching
and broadening the presumptive turnover tax base could yield an additional 1.1 percent of GDP by 2026 at minimal efficiency cost.
The findings suggest that administrative modernization coupled with selective rate adjustments can materially enhance revenue
performance in low-income countries facing narrow tax bases.