This paper investigates how external trade shocks transmit into household-level income volatility in Uganda, a low-income economy heavily
dependent on cash-crop exports. Merging highly-disaggregated customs data on coffee, cocoa, tea and tobacco shipments with five waves of
the Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS, 2009/10–2019/20), we construct a shift-share measure of district-level trade exposure that exploits
plausibly exogenous movements in world prices and destination-country demand. Difference-in-differences and instrumental-variable estimates
show that a one standard-deviation increase in export-price volatility raises the inter-temporal variance of farm profits by 9–12 % and total
household income by 6–8 %, with effects concentrated among smallholders cultivating less than two hectares. Transmission operates through
both price pass-through and quantity adjustments: farmers expand acreage and switch toward the volatile crop when global prices spike, but
face sharper post-shock contractions in output prices when world markets soften. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that access to contract
farming, cooperative membership and mobile-money penetration each attenuate the volatility effect by roughly one-third. Conversely,
households lacking formal savings instruments experience a threefold larger rise in income risk. Counter-factual simulations indicate that a 25 %
reduction in trade-policy uncertainty in destination markets would lower the probability of falling below the national poverty line by 4.5

percentage points. Our findings highlight the double-edged role of global cash-crop markets: while they raise average incomes, they also expose
vulnerable rural households to greater macroeconomic risk. Policy recommendations include deepening domestic price-stabilisation schemes,
promoting farmer organisations, and expanding mobile-based savings to cushion external shocks.