This paper maps and analyses trade patterns that have emerged within the COMESA–EAC–SADC Tripartite single market—an integration zone that links 29 African economies through overlapping Free Trade Areas. Using newly released customs data (2018–2023), we quantify the intensity, composition, and direction of intraregional trade flows and assess how the Tripartite’s phased tariff liberalisation has altered them.

Three stylised facts:

Utilisation asymmetries: Only 39.8% of eligible COMESA-FTA preferences and 25.3% of SADC preferences are actually claimed, whereas the East African Community (EAC) achieves 77.9%.

Hub-and-spoke geography: South Africa, Kenya, and Egypt act as dominant export platforms, supplying 54% of all recorded intra-Tripartite manufactures; smaller members remain locked in low-value, primary-good exports.

Policy-driven trade deflection: When traders can choose among competing rules of origin, they systematically favour the regime with the lowest compliance cost—most often COMESA over SADC—illustrating how administrative design shapes realised rather than potential trade.

General-equilibrium simulations:

A multi-region computable general equilibrium simulation calibrated to 2023 tariffs shows that full Tripartite liberalisation would raise real income within the zone by US$578 million per year, but gains are uneven: South Africa, SACU, and Kenya capture 68% of the welfare increment, while Zimbabwe, Zambia, and parts of Central Africa experience terms-of-trade losses.

Policy implications for AfCFTA:

Finally, we evaluate the consistency of observed trade patterns with the AfCFTA’s longer-run integration agenda. Harmonising rules of origin, streamlining border procedures, and investing in regional value-chain infrastructure—especially in transport corridors connecting landlocked members to coastal hubs—are found to be critical if the Tripartite is to evolve from a market of privileged access into a genuine single economic space.