This paper investigates how the COVID-19 shock reshaped Uganda’s trade-policy stance and outcomes. Merging monthly customs micro-data from the Uganda Revenue Authority (2019–2022) with new hand-collected indicators of pandemic-era policy interventions, we trace the evolution of tariffs, non-tariff measures (NTMs), border procedures, and export-promotion incentives. Identification exploits the staggered introduction—and subsequent easing—of lockdowns, testing mandates, and cargo-priority schemes across Uganda’s trading corridors and product lines.

Three key dynamics:

We find three key dynamics:

Policy volatility surged: The cumulative count of ad-hoc NTMs (export bans, import licensing, temporary duty waivers) more than tripled between March 2020 and December 2021, with 60% of the measures reversed or renewed at least once within six months.

Policies amplified the trade collapse: Sectors subject to multiple, rapidly changing NTMs experienced export drops that were 14–22 percentage points deeper than otherwise comparable products.

Recovery policy mix after mid-2021: Uganda shifted to a “recovery policy mix,” combining streamlined border clearance, digital certificates of origin, and targeted export rebates. This pivot explains 35% of the rebound in formal exports to the Middle East and the East African Community observed by end-2022, but had no measurable effect on the near-complete collapse of informal cross-border trade to the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Counterfactual simulations suggest that greater policy predictability—holding the average level of restrictions constant—would have reduced Uganda’s pandemic-era trade deficit by roughly one-fifth.

Conclusion:

Overall, the findings highlight that the dynamics of trade policy, not just its average restrictiveness, are critical for resilience during global shocks.