This paper investigates the prospective economic and trade outcomes of the East African Community (EAC) regional trade
arrangement by synthesizing recent empirical evidence. Using a gravity-model framework and panel data covering the period 2005-
2022, we find that EAC membership has increased bilateral trade among member states by approximately 213 % relative to a
counterfactual without the agreement, an effect substantially larger than that recorded for COMESA (+80 %) or SADC (+110 %).
Trade creation is accompanied by significant but heterogeneous growth dividends: regional trade openness raises GDP growth
across members, with elasticities ranging from 0.49 to 0.73 depending on forward versus backward global value-chain (GVC)
participation. However, the impact is uneven—Kenya captures disproportionate gains, while land-locked members experience
smaller, though still positive, effects. Reductions in non-tariff barriers and the introduction of one-stop border posts have shortened
clearance times by up to 30 %, generating an additional 8.4 % increase in intra-EAC trade. On the security front, deeper integration is
associated with a 12 % historical decline in bilateral conflict risk, but a prospective common market could raise internal conflict
potential by 2 %, suggesting the need for compensatory mechanisms. Overall, while the EAC arrangement delivers sizeable trade-
creation and peace-promoting benefits, realizing its full potential requires targeted policies to address distributional asymmetries,
strengthen GVC linkages, and manage the unintended consequences of rapid integration.