This paper investigates the prospective economic and trade outcomes of the East African Community (EAC) regional trade arrangement by synthesising recent empirical evidence. Using a gravity-model framework and panel data covering the period 2005–2022, we find that EAC membership has increased bilateral trade among member states by approximately 213% relative to a counterfactual without the agreement, an effect substantially larger than that recorded for COMESA (+80%) or SADC (+110%).

Growth dividends:

Trade creation is accompanied by significant but heterogeneous growth dividends: regional trade openness raises GDP growth across members, with elasticities ranging from 0.49 to 0.73 depending on forward versus backward global value-chain (GVC) participation. However, the impact is uneven—Kenya captures disproportionate gains, while landlocked members experience smaller, though still positive, effects.

Trade facilitation gains:

Reductions in non-tariff barriers and the introduction of one-stop border posts have shortened clearance times by up to 30%, generating an additional 8.4% increase in intra-EAC trade.

Security implications:

On the security front, deeper integration is associated with a 12% historical decline in bilateral conflict risk, but a prospective common market could raise internal conflict potential by 2%, suggesting the need for compensatory mechanisms.

Conclusion:

Overall, while the EAC arrangement delivers sizeable trade-creation and peace-promoting benefits, realising its full potential requires targeted policies to address distributional asymmetries, strengthen GVC linkages, and manage the unintended consequences of rapid integration.